Our Economic Helter Skelter
November 26th, 2009 categories: Market Trends, Real Estate News
“Sooner or later in life, we all sit down to a banquet of consequences.”
Robert Louis Stevenson
Is a Federal Housing Administration(FHA) crisis on the horizon? With FHA’s insurance reserve ratio falling to the lowest level in history, at 0.53 percent, there are some who believe the FHA is the next subprime crisis waiting to happen. One of those is homebuilder, Toll Brothers Inc., CEO, Robert Toll. Toll predicts that just like the failed bank bailouts, the FHA will be next in the handout line. And, with the reserve ratio as low as it is, he may be on to something. According to a Congressional mandate, the ratio should be no lower than 2.0
In addition to the alarming FHA news, this week’s Wall Street Journal reported that nearly 25 percent of all homeowners are upside down with their home mortgage. In other words, they owe more on the mortgage than their home is worth. Well, considering how values have fallen since ‘05, that isn’t too surprising.
While the recent encouraging national home sales figures provided us a glimmer of hope amidst the current economic downturn, today’s sobering news concerning the viability of FHA home loans, and the depressed values of properties, bring us back to reality. So, what are we to believe? Are things getting better? Is the First Time Homebuyer’s Tax Credit frenzy skewing sales numbers, or, are increased home sales “genuine”? Are these numbers more akin to a mirage? Instead, are we stuck in an economic tailspin for months, or years to come?
In the competition to provide us the latest and greatest updates on where the economy is heading, we see indications that are both promising and discouraging. Where the housing market may be going, we don’t exactly know. But, fortunately, one thing is for sure, there will be homes both bought and sold. So, perhaps we’d best stick to the present, and as they say, the future will take care of itself. After all, as someone once said, “Predicting the future is easy. It’s trying to figure out what’s going on now that’s hard.”
